Bitcoin posted a 12% gain in April, its largest monthly increase in a year. According to a market research firm, this rally was driven by speculative futures demand, not organic spot buying. On-chain metrics showed spot demand contracting while perpetual futures demand expanded, a dynamic historically linked to unsustained gains and seen at the start of the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin’s price increased by 12% in April, marking its largest monthly gain in a year. Market participants questioned whether this rally was structural or speculative in nature.
CryptoQuant offered insights into the drivers of the April price movement. Its latest weekly report indicated that demand from the perpetual futures market was the primary force behind the surge.
Throughout the month, Bitcoin’s apparent demand indicator, tracking on-chain spot buying activity, remained negative. Conversely, the metric for perpetual futures demand continued to expand as speculative positioning grew.
“The divergence between rising price and contracting spot demand is one of the clearest on-chain signals that price gains are speculative rather than structural,” analysts explained. They confirmed the absence of fundamental demand support for the price surge.
Based on historical data, this specific demand dynamic is associated with unsustained price gains during bear seasons. It highlights a lack of the structural foundation required to sustain rallies.
The current demand structure is identical to that observed at the start of the 2022 bear market. That dynamic preceded a sustained multi-month price decline at the time.
If Bitcoin’s apparent demand does not turn positive, rallies toward the $79,000 region will lack necessary support. This situation presents significant downside risk, according to the analysis.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant‘s Bull Score Index fell from 50 to 40 in April. This move signaled a return from neutral to bearish territory, showing on-chain fundamentals deteriorated.
