Stifel Financial Corp. warned on Feb. 4, 2026 that Bitcoin could fall to about $38,000 amid tighter U.S. monetary policy and shrinking market liquidity. According to Walter Bloomberg, the firm blamed heavy ETF outflows and slowing U.S. crypto regulation.
Stifel projected roughly a 42% decline from recent highs, citing a liquidity crunch and waning institutional interest (Ed. note: sentiment was described as “extreme fear”). That summary appeared in a tweet and emphasized ETF outflows and reduced liquidity.
Another analyst, BitcoinHabebe, posted a differing technical outlook on Twitter.
“$BTC will bottom between 68 and 72k, which will mark the end of the wave A correction from its 125k ATH. Wave B will most likely take us from here to 96-103k, which will give us a mini altseason to keep continuing to nail trades on the way up till there. That’s when we will unload, short, & head to new lows for wave C 👍🏼.” The forecast was shared in this tweet.
Both statements reflect differing analyst views and highlight elevated market uncertainty. Markets now face pressure from policy shifts, liquidity strains, and shifting investor sentiment.
