The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 52.6 in January, its highest level since August 2022, signaling economic expansion. Analysts note this could herald a shift to risk-on conditions, potentially benefiting Bitcoin, which trades near $78,000. However, other experts caution that the cryptocurrency does not always move in lockstep with traditional economic indicators.
A key U.S. economic health metric has posted its strongest monthly score since August 2022. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI recorded a score of 52.6 for January, stated in a report, beating expectations and ending a long period of contraction.
A score above 50 indicates economic expansion. The index is closely watched by investors and the Federal Reserve for assessing economic strength and inflation risks.
Some analysts link the improving data to potential gains for Bitcoin. “Historically, these PMI reversals mark the shift to risk-on conditions,” said Strive’s Joe Burnett, noting past rallies following similar index rises.
Pseudonymous analyst Plan C added that understanding the business cycle is crucial for the bull market. Other voices, like Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse, noted that Bitcoin does not always correlate with the index.
Bitcoin’s price is down nearly 38% from its October high of over $126,000. The asset has seen turbulence since a major liquidation event in early October.
Institutional predictions for Bitcoin in 2026 vary widely. Dragonfly forecast a price above $150,000, while Fundstrat‘s Tom Lee anticipated a retrace before a late-year comeback.
Galaxy Digital declined to make a specific prediction, saying the year was too chaotic to guess. The firm suggested Bitcoin could end 2026 anywhere between $50,000 and $250,000.
