An automated prediction market bot that bets “No” on nearly every non-sports question on Polymarket is drawing attention for its simple, cynical strategy. Created by engineer Sterling Crispin, the bot leverages platform data showing 73.3% of resolved markets end in a “No” outcome. It operates with specific filters, including only buying positions priced below $0.65 to preserve a statistical edge, though the platform’s top-earning traders are domain experts, not systematic “No” bettors.
An engineer has built a prediction market bot with a philosophy borrowed from the most cynical person at the dinner table—the one who always argues “nothing ever happens.” The bot, created by Sterling Crispin, automatically buys “No” on every non-sports market on Polymarket it finds and holds to resolution. The entire trading strategy fits in one sentence.
The premise rests on a number Polymarket publishes openly, as stated on its accuracy page: 73.3% of all resolved markets on the platform end in “No.” Crispin cited a nearly identical figure—73.4%—when he announced the bot on X earlier this week. The source code reveals specific filters, including only targeting non-sports markets and only buying “No” when the best ask sits below $0.65.
That price cap does real work by screening out markets where the crowd has already priced in the likely “No” outcome. The effect is amplified in longer-running markets, which resolve “No” at a rate of 73.5%, nearly matching the platform’s overall published figure. The longer a market stays open, the more time the world has to simply do nothing.
Prediction markets have grown into a $63.5 billion-a-year industry, and Polymarket was valued at $9 billion after a major investment in October 2025. The platform’s top earners don’t bet “No” on everything, however. Polymarket’s all-time leaderboard shows the top 10 traders have collectively made over $113 million in profit—and nearly all are bettors with genuine domain expertise, not systematic “No” bettors. As of publication, Crispin has not shared his wallet address or actual profit figures from live trading.
