A blockchain analysis firm discovered that two connected cryptocurrency wallets made $320,000 in profit by perfectly predicting former President Joe Biden’s last-minute pardons. The wallets, identified by Bubblemaps, placed high-risk bets on prediction market Polymarket with 100% accuracy, correctly wagering on pardons for Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Adam Schiff, Jim Biden, and, earlier, Hunter Biden. The timing and success of these trades have raised concerns similar to recent scrutiny over well-timed political bets during the current administration.
A supremely well-timed trader netted hundreds of thousands of dollars betting flawlessly on former President Joe Biden’s last acts in office. Newly surfaced on-chain data reveals two connected Polymarket accounts correctly predicted four of the five individuals Biden pardoned in his final hours.
The wallets correctly chose pardons for anti-Trump Republicans Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, California Senator Adam Schiff, and the former president’s brother, Jim Biden. They had also correctly wagered the prior month that Biden would pardon his son, Hunter.
The January 20 bets had incredibly low odds when they were placed, given Biden was just hours from losing presidential powers. A $21,711 bet on the Jim Biden pardon at just 11% odds netted a $198,220 return within minutes.
The revelation comes as the Trump administration faces scrutiny for numerous bets made just prior to crucial market-moving actions. The size and timing of such wagers has generated enough scrutiny that the White House quietly directed staff last week not to place bets on sensitive topics including the ongoing Iran war.
A Bubblemaps analyst stated the suspicious Biden-related trading looks very similar to the type under scrutiny now. “For suspicious trades we search for the pattern of big, well-timed bets across several connected wallets,” the analyst said. “This is exactly what we found in the Biden pardon case here.”
