VanEck reports that 60.8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved on-chain in over 12 months, a historically high level indicating low potential sell pressure. Major institutional ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity have pulled hundreds of thousands of BTC from exchange order books, creating thin liquidity. This supply squeeze, combined with ongoing institutional inflows, could lead to sharper price movements. However, the trajectory remains tied to U.S. interest rate policy and third-quarter ETF flows, which will determine if the tightening supply impacts market prices.
Bitcoin trading volumes have been slow in the first half of 2026, but VanEck suggests the real story is a tightening supply structure. 60.8% of circulating Bitcoin has not moved on-chain for more than 12 months, which is a very high level historically.
This on-chain metric indicates sell pressure is expected to be low in the coming market cycle. VanEck uses this data to explain Bitcoin as a “macro” asset to its holders rather than a “trading” vehicle.
A spot Bitcoin ETF issued by major institutions like VanEck, BlackRock, and Fidelity now holds hundreds of thousands of BTC under custodial custody. A very large portion of the supply has effectively been pulled from the live order books of exchanges.
Fund managers and investors are exposed to the risk that lower liquidity could trigger sharper moves in prices. This is particularly true with ETFs and corporate treasuries acting as inflow channels, leading to greater price spikes after sudden increases in trading volumes.
Bitcoin miners and participants within the wider market can be heartened by Bitcoin’s role as collateral rather than only a speculative crypto. Exchanges can expect thin dormancy, creating a scenario where macro uncertainty and institutional accumulation through 2026 interact with limited retail trading.
Long-term holders might still decide to sell, and ETF money flows ultimately come down to market sentiment. The catalysts for price movement will be fed by U.S. interest rate policy and the third quarter’s ETF flows.
