Avalanche (AVAX) reclaimed its multi-year trendline after a brief breakdown, strengthening its bullish structure. The token moved above key moving averages as momentum improved, though cautious derivatives activity contrasted with stronger network usage. Traders now focus on whether the breakout can sustain further upside.
AVAX reclaimed its long-term trendline after briefly losing the level, according to crypto analyst Kamran Asghar, who suggested the breakdown may have been a false signal. Following the recovery, Asghar identified $110 as a potential longer-term target.
TradingView chart analysis shows that AVAX spent July and August in an extended consolidation near the $7.00–$8.00 region, with Bollinger Bands tightening. A volume surge in mid-September helped the token break above resistance and reclaim the 200 EMA at $8.65, reaching a local high of $11.78.
At the time of analysis, AVAX traded at $11.13, remaining above its moving averages, but had broken above the upper Bollinger band at $10.50, implying overheated levels. The last candle declined roughly 1.55%, increasing the probability of a retracement, with the 200 EMA at $8.65 serving as a deep technical support.
Derivatives data from Coinglass revealed that transaction volume fell 41.73% to $1.46 billion, while open interest declined 3.39% to $525.88 million, indicating lower leveraged participation. The reduced exposure suggests traders cut positions after September’s surge, pointing to a possible weakness unless higher participation returns.
On-chain activity added support, as Chainspect reported that the Avalanche blockchain earned roughly $20,000 in transaction fees on September 20, the peak daily income for the week. While fees alone do not dictate price trends, network activity provides additional context for market participants.
The current chart setup combines a retracement from the multi-year trendline, a breakout past the 200 EMA, and rising network fees. The drop in derivatives volume and open interest implies traders remain cautious after the swift move, leaving the focus on whether buyers can hold the reclaimed trendline. The $110 level remains a long-term technical target, not yet realized.
