Glassnode’s proprietary Altcoin Cycle Signal has officially flipped from Bitcoin season to altcoin season, marking a shift in market leadership. The on-chain analytics firm confirmed the change this week, noting that an August rally that initially bypassed most alternative cryptocurrencies has now broadened. The signal tracks Bitcoin’s performance against a market-cap-weighted basket of the top 250 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, with high readings indicating altcoin outperformance. This transition comes as Bitcoin surged past $87,000 on Monday, a level not seen since late January, while major altcoins like Ethereum, BNB, and XRP posted significant gains. The broader market rally has pushed the total cryptocurrency market capitalization up 3.6% to over $3 trillion.
Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal flipped from Bitcoin season to altcoin season this week, the on-chain analytics firm reported. This shift follows an August rally that had mostly bypassed altcoins before giving way to broader market participation. The signal compares Bitcoin’s performance against a market-cap-weighted basket of the top 250 altcoins, minus stablecoins, with high readings indicating altcoins are outperforming.
Bitcoin rallied through mid-August while the signal remained in Bitcoin season territory, then it turned blue on Monday as BTC’s price surpassed $87,000. “The first rally in August saw altcoins stay relatively flat while BTC moved,” Glassnode wrote. “However, today’s rally has ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market.” The analytics platform also noted that Bitcoin was trading above both the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis, levels that have historically defined a sustained uptrend when price holds above them.
The Elliott wave count has BTC nearing a target for a fifth wave, with the daily Relative Strength Index diverging from price. Analyst Darkfost said this setup could foreshadow a pullback toward $74,500 before the asset advances further. Bitcoin was changing hands above $85,000 at press time, up 5% in 24 hours, after breaching $87,000 on Monday for the first time since late January.
Ethereum boasted a 10% weekly climb, taking it past $2,700, though analyst DANNY called the setup a trap and expects a slide toward $1,500. Elsewhere, BNB crossed $800 for the first time since late January, XRP jumped from $1.40 to above $1.50, and Dogecoin led larger-cap alts with a 24-hour gain above 15%. Bitcoin’s market share stood at 57%.
Last week brought macro headwinds, including the Senate voting against the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time since July 2023, pushing BTC to a multi-week low near $75,000 before it reclaimed its 50-week moving average. Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated all ingredients are present for a rally this month, citing cooling oil prices and rates being stable.
