Bitcoin remains nearly 50% below its record high, leaving traders divided on whether the bear market has bottomed. Pseudonymous analyst NoName warns that an unfilled fair value gap above the current price could trigger a rally before a final drop to the $39,000–$49,000 range, with “weeks left” before a buying zone. In contrast, trader KillaXBT argues that waiting for lower prices may be a mistake, comparing current sentiment to 2022. Kalshi assigns a 55% probability that Bitcoin reaches $50,000 before returning to $100,000, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. Bitcoin recently dropped to $63,000 after briefly reclaiming $65,000, and is down 3% over the past week.
Pseudonymous crypto analyst NoName said that despite Bitcoin’s recent recovery, the asset may still be weeks away from its bear market low. According to them, an unfilled fair value gap above the current price could be completed before a final drop toward the $39,000 to $49,000 range.
In a July 28 post on X, NoName compared today’s market mood to 2018, writing: “I saw the same thing in 2018. People believed in the rally right before the final drop. Sentiment was identical to what I’m seeing right now.” They explained that Bitcoin is climbing because of an unfilled fair value gap, which price often returns to fill before continuing in the same direction.
The analyst expects Bitcoin to first enter and fill the gap, then fall within one to three days into a multi-week search for a bottom between $39,000 and $49,000. NoName noted that they sold BTC near its 2025 all-time high around $117,000 before the bear market, and that sentiment has shifted from “pure euphoria” to “pure despair.”
Kalshi has assigned a 55% probability that Bitcoin reaches $50,000 before returning to $100,000, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. However, trader KillaXBT argued that many investors are overly focused on waiting for a revisit to $50,000 or $40,000, comparing sentiment to 2022 when traders waited for a drop to $10,000 that never came. Historical accumulation, rather than chasing the exact bottom, has been a better strategy.
Bitcoin reversed to around $63,000 ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, after briefly reclaiming $65,000. It is down about 3% over the past seven days, but up more than 5% over 30 days, and sits nearly 50% below its all-time high of over $126,000 recorded in October 2025.
