Bitcoin has historically declined before U.S. midterm elections, with recoveries beginning after the vote, according to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson. His analysis shows BTC enters a bear market roughly one year before each midterm, then starts a longer bull market post-election. Presidential elections trigger a different pattern, with strong rallies after a win and a cycle top near inauguration. A Binance Research report similarly found Bitcoin drops an average of 56% during completed midterm cycles before gaining 54% in the following year. Currently, BTC trades near $64,000, about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000, with three months until the polls.
Bitcoin’s market cycles may be more tied to the U.S. political calendar than many investors realize, according to an analysis by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson. In a July 30 post, he compared Bitcoin’s price history against election cycles and found a recurring sequence.
Wedson noted that BTC enters a bear market about one year before every U.S. midterm election, then begins a longer bull market right after the vote. In some cycles, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.
Presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly after each president’s win before approaching a major cycle top near inauguration. “Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss,” Wedson wrote.
He said XRP offers an even more striking example, starting a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reaching a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated. His observations align with a Binance Research report from earlier in the year, which found that BTC has historically struggled during midterm election years before posting gains once political uncertainty faded.
Per that report, Bitcoin dropped by an average of about 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014, then returned an average gain of roughly 54% in the year after the elections. Wedson had earlier contended that while many believe Bitcoin has already established a bottom, “a price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.”
He said there must be clear signs of capitulation and deleveraging, as well as short-term investors bringing in new capital, before such a conclusion can be reached. With about three months left before the U.S. midterm polls, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $64,000, nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000.
Data from CoinGecko shows BTC dipped about 2.5% in seven days, though it is still up nearly 8% over the last month. The cryptocurrency weathered the latest Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.
