Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 after strong U.S. jobs data raised the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets now place about 60% odds on a September 16 rate increase. A recent Bitfinex Alpha report showed 162,000 jobs added in August, with unemployment at 4.1%, signaling labor-market strength and less urgency for rate cuts. Higher short-term yields pressured Bitcoin, but it has held a range near $77,200 to $82,100 and remains about 42% above its July low. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows last week. Inflation data could determine Bitcoin’s next move.
According to the recent Bitfinex Alpha report, the U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%. Markets now put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16 at about 60%.
The data suggests the labor market remains strong, giving the Fed less reason to rush into cutting rates. The strong jobs report pushed two-year U.S. Treasury yields above 4.34% as markets adjusted their expectations.
Higher rates can put pressure on Bitcoin because safer assets such as government bonds become more attractive. Bitcoin initially held up despite that pressure, reaching $82,400 on September 3 before pulling back.
It has since traded between roughly $77,200 and $82,100. The cryptocurrency remains about 42% above its July low.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract demand, recording nearly $1 billion in net inflows last week. Analysts at Bitfinex said this week’s inflation report will be an important test for Bitcoin.
They are watching whether ETF demand can remain strong even while short-term interest rates stay high. If ETF buying continues under those conditions, Bitfinex believes high rates may no longer be the main factor limiting Bitcoin’s recovery.
A sustained flow into the ETFs could support Bitcoin if other market conditions remain favorable. Bitcoin also faces a potential selling hurdle as more than 71% of its supply is currently in profit.
That figure is approaching the historical average of 74.7%, a level Bitcoin has previously moved above during shifts from weaker markets to stronger ones. For now, Bitcoin remains between $77,200 and $82,100 as markets wait for fresh inflation data.
A weekly close above $82,100 could strengthen the recovery, while hotter inflation could increase pressure on the Fed to raise rates.
