Bitcoin has reclaimed its warm supply realized price—the average purchase cost of coins held for one to six months—trading at $78,856 with a 0.53% daily gain. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that previous recoveries of this on-chain metric preceded rallies of 69% to 159%. However, analyst Klarck projects a possible drop to $40,000 before a new cycle targets $196,000 by 2029. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the MACD remains bearish at -452.41, while the price sits above the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting buyers may test resistance near $80,907.
Bitcoin is attempting a recovery after recapturing a critical on-chain cost basis. At press time, BTC is trading near $78,856, up 0.53% over the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.59 trillion.
Analyst Ali Martinez noted in a post that Bitcoin has returned to its warm supply realized price, which represents the average purchase price of coins moved within the last one to six months. Previous recoveries of this metric preceded notable rallies: a 69% surge in January 2023, a 159% rally in October 2023, a 74% gain in October 2024, and a 34% increase in April 2025.
Analyst Klarck offered a more conservative outlook in a market update posted on September 9. He outlined a roadmap projecting a decline from $69,000 to $40,000 as a potential cycle bottom, followed by a new bull cycle targeting $196,000 by 2029.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. Bitcoin is trading above the middle Bollinger Band at $78,729, with the upper band at $80,907 and the lower band at $76,551. The MACD stands at -452.41, with the MACD line at 2,676.23 and the signal line at 3,128.65, indicating ongoing selling pressure.
The $80,000 to $81,000 range is expected to be crucial in the near term. A breakout above this zone could build positive sentiment, while a drop below $78,700 might push BTC toward the lower Bollinger Band at $76,551. The broader $69,000 level remains significant for a bearish scenario, though recent strength above support weakens the case for an immediate deeper pullback.
