Bitcoin’s price has retreated to $76,800, testing crucial support after breaking a short-term bullish trend. Analysts identify the $75,000 zone as a critical line in the sand, with a break lower potentially targeting the $72,000 area where the 100-day moving average converges.
Bitcoin is trading at $76.8k as the third week of May opens, having surrendered the $80k breakout that defined the prior week’s narrative. The short-term bullish trendline that supported the inner rally structure has been broken, and the price has pulled back into the mid-range of the large ascending channel on the daily timeframe.
On the daily chart, the ascending channel breakout has been invalidated, and the asset has returned inside the structure. The support zone at $75k is now the critical area to defend, as it represents the most recent bullish order block and short-term swing low.
The 100-day moving average has declined to approximately $72k and is approaching from below, providing a rising floor. However, the 200-day MA, currently located around $81k, is pushing the price lower from above after rejecting it decisively. A rebound from $75k and a recovery back above $80k would suggest the pullback was corrective.
On the 4-hour chart, a bearish RSI divergence that built through the $80k–$82k highs earlier this month has resolved as the pattern suggested. The price is now sitting at the upper edge of the $75k–$76k support zone, with the RSI having dropped sharply below 35.
On-chain data shows the Adjusted SOPR has recovered from its February low below 0.98, a reading that confirmed widespread capitulation, to 1.005. This metric has just crossed the critical 1.0 threshold that separates profitable from loss-realizing behavior. The fragility of the current reading matters, as any meaningful price decline back toward $70k–$72k risks pushing it below 1.0 again, signaling the recovery has stalled.
