The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 29, with markets nearly evenly split between a rate hold (64.2% probability) and a 25-basis-point hike (35.8% probability). According to The Kobeissi Letter, Fed Chair Warsh has eliminated forward guidance, adding uncertainty. Bitcoin fell 3.10% over the past week but recovered 2.10% in the last 24 hours after touching a local low of $62,700. Traders adopted defensive positioning: the 7-day taker position hit a one-year low of -3.43, and open interest dropped sharply across exchanges. Whale stablecoin inflows to Binance have declined significantly since September 2025, indicating weak demand. Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains bearish; a rally above $67,200 is needed to flip it bullish.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29. According to the FedWatch tool, there is a 64.2% probability that rates stay flat and a 35.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.
The Kobeissi Letter observed that this makes for some of the most divided market expectations in recent history. In a post on X, the commentary wrote that “Fed Chair Warsh has effectively eliminated forward guidance”, which added to market uncertainty.
Bitcoin was down 3.10% over the past week but rallied 2.10% over the past 24 hours. On Tuesday, July 28, the Bitcoin price dived to a local low of $62.7k.
The 7-day taker position sank to -3.43, the lowest in a year, meaning market sell orders seized considerable dominance. This intense bearish taker activity signaled defensive positioning ahead of the FOMC decision and might not dictate the next move’s direction.
Crypto analyst Amr Taha observed that the derivatives market underwent a broad leverage reduction on July 28. Gate.io saw a $391 million reduction, Bybit recorded $178 million, and Binance $149 million in Open Interest declines.
Analyst Darkfost demonstrated that since September 2025, whale stablecoin inflows to Binance have shrunk from $63 billion to $25 billion. The inflows briefly recovered after Bitcoin reached $60k in February but were not sustained, underlining prevalent weakness in whale demand.
The Bitcoin price trajectory remains bearish on the 4-hour timeframe. A rally beyond $67.2k is needed to flip this structure bullishly, and the inability to convincingly flip the $65.2k retracement level to support shows bears have the upper hand in the short term.
