Bitcoin’s potential market size may exceed the $30 trillion gold market, according to a crypto industry executive. Matt Hougan of Bitwise argues that geopolitical tensions, like the recent Iran conflict, have boosted Bitcoin’s price and demonstrated its role as an apolitical alternative to sanctioned financial systems. Some traders believe this dynamic, coupled with Bitcoin’s historic drawdown against gold, could lead to significant price appreciation in the coming months.
Bitcoin’s “addressable market” could surpass gold’s near $40 trillion market cap, stated Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise. Hougan noted that Bitcoin has performed well since the start of the Iran conflict, gaining 12% while the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold dropped 10%.
He argued this performance has caught many off guard, as Bitcoin is typically considered a risk asset. Hougan commented that “pundits have grasped for explanations: Some have argued that geopolitics is irrelevant for bitcoin, while others have pointed out that war often leads to money printing, which tends to boost bitcoin in the long term. Both arguments are wrong.”
Instead, he framed Bitcoin’s rise as a response to the “weaponization” of financial systems like SWIFT. Hougan continued that this creates demand for an “apolitical alternative,” particularly for countries trapped between U.S. and Chinese systems.
This geopolitical framing indicates Bitcoin is likely to rise during future conflicts. The post summarized that “bitcoin’s total addressable market is probably a lot bigger than the $38 trillion gold market alone.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin is recovering from a trip to its lowest levels against gold since mid-2023.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe described the recent correction as the heaviest in Bitcoin’s history against gold. He noted that historical comparisons show an average return of 350-450% after 12 months from such points.
Based on this analysis, Van de Poppe predicted a very likely return to the $87,500-$90,000 range for Bitcoin within three months. He argued that “this is the general moment every cycle that you’d want to get allocated into an asset.”
