Bitcoin is showing its most oversold technical signal since the COVID-19 market crash, potentially setting the stage for a price rebound. The cryptocurrency’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to approximately 15.5, a level last seen during the March 2020 downturn. Analysts note that similar extreme readings have historically preceded significant recoveries, with Bitcoin currently defending a crucial $60,000 support level.
Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index has dropped to around 15.5, marking its most oversold reading since the March 2020 COVID crash. This follows a roughly 30% price decline over the past month amid various macroeconomic and sector-specific pressures.
Similar oversold RSI readings occurred in 2020 and February 2026, preceding sharp relief rebounds. The signal from February 2026 preceded a nearly 30% recovery toward $82,850.
Bulls are currently defending the $60,000 support level against high-volume selling. Holding above this level could facilitate a bounce toward the 20-day exponential moving average near $70,650.
Data cited by crypto analyst Scott Melker shows Bitcoin short-term holders are realizing their largest losses on record. The short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio has fallen to a new all-time low.
Melker also noted that roughly 5.3 million BTC held by long-term holders is now underwater. This is the highest level since the March 2020 crash.
“Sentiment has tracked price almost perfectly,” Melker stated. “Traders were euphoric at the May peak, then hit peak despair on June 3.”
He added that such extreme despair often indicates a bottom is close. Historical stress levels have appeared near past major market capitulation zones.
