Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $57,000 to an eight-month high of $87,000 has fueled bullish sentiment, with some traders targeting $100,000 by October. However, Glassnode’s data suggests the current correction is historically shallow—only 30% below the cycle high compared to over 80% drawdowns in previous bear cycles, indicating a bottom may still be 90 days away. Meanwhile, macro risks from rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions could pressure risk assets. On‑chain accumulation by large holders with 100–1,000 BTC has added over 113,000 Bitcoin since July, signaling positioning for a potential Q4 bottom and year‑end rally, creating a divergence between technical optimism and historical cycle signals.
Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered sharply in the third quarter, climbing from a July low of $57,000 to an eight-month high wick of $87,000 in September, delivering a return of over 40% so far. Some traders now anticipate a reclaim of $100,000 by end of October, despite macroeconomic volatility surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee.
Data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is still only about 30% below its cycle high, a comparatively shallow drawdown. In previous bear cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin bottomed after drawdowns exceeding 80%, suggesting the current correction may not be the final low.
Based on historical bear cycles, Glassnode’s analysis suggests another 90 days could be needed before a potential cycle bottom is reached. This challenges the view that the $57,000 low marked the ultimate bottom.
Broader markets face renewed pressure. U.S. markets suffered over $1 trillion in losses in 24 hours as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, Treasury yields climbed above 5%, and oil prices approached $90 per barrel. In this environment, additional rate hikes or higher yields could quickly weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin.
On-chain data presents a contrasting picture. Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms have occurred roughly 365 to 406 days after the cycle peak. The last cycle top was on October 6, 2025, at $126,000, placing a potential bottom between October 6 and November 16 this year, aligning with market year-end targets.
Large holders appear to be positioning for such a move. Wallets containing 100 to 1,000 BTC have accumulated 113,950 Bitcoin since July 15, increasing their holdings by 2.22% to approximately 5.24 million BTC. Data shows that “this kind of accumulation indicates that large players are using the current weakness to build exposure ahead of a potential Q4 rally.”
The divergence between Glassnode’s cycle outlook and rising accumulation suggests that a bottom could occur in mid-Q4, followed by a possible year-end rally if conditions hold. The debate around Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains central to this outlook.
