The crypto market is on track for its first bullish quarterly close since Q3 2025, with total market cap up over 6% so far in Q3 2026. Bitcoin dominance remains below the critical 60% resistance, and historical underperformance in August and September suggests a rotation into Ethereum. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed more than 10% this quarter, its strongest performance since Q3 2025. Ethereum surged 18.55% in July, more than doubling Bitcoin’s return. Ethereum dominance rose 11% in July, indicating it is gaining market share. Ethereum’s exchange supply ratio has dropped to 0.127, the lowest level on record, while institutional demand is rising. This mirrors the setup in Q3 2025, when Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by more than 10x.
The third quarter of 2026 is shaping up to be the most bullish phase of the current cycle, according to market data. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has gained more than 6% this quarter, putting it on track for its first positive quarterly close since Q3 2025. Since that period, crypto has failed to close a single quarter in the green.
Bitcoin dominance has yet to reclaim the 60% level. Unless that resistance breaks above, calling for a sustained rally through the rest of Q3 may be premature, especially with Bitcoin historically underperforming in August and September.
Ethereum is taking center stage as capital rotates out of Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed over 10% in Q3, putting it on track for its strongest quarterly performance since the 56% rally in Q3 2025. Ethereum surged 18.55% in July, more than doubling Bitcoin’s return.
Ethereum dominance closed July up more than 11%, signaling that the asset is gaining a larger share of the total crypto market. According to data, if this trend continues, Ethereum could remain the market leader through the rest of Q3. A repeat of Ethereum’s 2025-style outperformance against Bitcoin looks increasingly likely.
In Q3 2025, Ethereum closed up 66.55%, its strongest quarterly rally on record. That move was fueled by a 48% rally in July and an 18% gain in August, while Bitcoin returned just 6.31%. The ETH/BTC pair gained more than 56%, suggesting nearly 84% of Ethereum’s Q3 gains were driven by capital rotating out of Bitcoin.
A similar setup may now be taking shape. Ethereum’s exchange supply ratio has dropped to 0.127, the lowest level on record. Combined with rising institutional demand, the declining liquid supply strengthens the case for another Ethereum-led rally. With Bitcoin facing its historically weaker August and September window, the odds of Ethereum taking the lead for the rest of Q3 are starting to look increasingly favorable.
