Kalshi estimates offshore crypto derivatives volume topped $90 trillion by 2025, while U.S.-regulated crypto derivatives stayed below $5 trillion. Regulators from the SEC and CFTC warn strict rules on perpetual futures could push liquidity offshore. Perpetual futures now drive more than 70% of centralized exchange trading. U.S. venues including Coinbase Derivatives, Kraken, Kalshi, dYdX, Hyperliquid, and GMX are exploring compliant structures as officials weigh oversight.
Senior regulatory personnel from the SEC and CFTC said requiring registration, margin setting, and surveillance too rigorously could drive liquidity offshore and create losses for the domestic market.
Kalshi’s estimate puts offshore crypto derivatives volume above $90 trillion by 2025, compared with under $5 trillion for U.S.-regulated derivatives. The warnings follow CFTC staff opinions on perpetual contracts and increased SEC scrutiny of leveraged products offered through intermediaries and exchanges.
According to CoinGecko, perpetual futures make up more than 70% of centralized exchange volume. Unlike traditional futures, perpetuals have no expiry and rely on funding rates to stay aligned with spot prices.
A social media post noted that U.S. regulators are working on new rules for crypto derivatives, including classification of perpetual futures and agency oversight. Several U.S. venues, including Coinbase Derivatives, Kraken, and Kalshi, plus protocols dYdX, Hyperliquid, and GMX, are exploring compliance paths for institutional and retail traders.
A domestic perp market would be CFTC-regulated, transparent about insolvency, and integrated with stablecoins, ETFs, and prime brokerage. The debate sits within 2026 trends involving CFTC spot authority expansion, SEC positioning, and Congress’s Market Structure Bill.
Rules that are too restrictive could limit monitoring, tax revenue, and consumer protection, while permissive rules could raise leverage risk.
