New research suggests Bitcoin has approximately a 77% probability of setting a new all-time high within the next year, based on historical price patterns. Network economist Timothy Peterson’s analysis indicates that after recovering from a 50% drawdown to a 35% drawdown, Bitcoin has reached new highs within a year in seven out of nine past instances. Meanwhile, Matthew Sigel of VanEck suggests Bitcoin “looks cheap” and could target $160,000 if it regains a valuation implied by the Buffett indicator.
Bitcoin’s price may have a roughly 77% chance of reaching new record highs within one year if historical patterns repeat. This probability stems from research by network economist Timothy Peterson, who examined every instance where Bitcoin reduced its drawdown from all-time highs from 50% to 35%.
Peterson stated that in seven out of nine such historical events, a new all-time high followed within a year. Bitcoin currently trades around $81,000, representing a 35% drawdown from its October 2025 peak of approximately $126,200.
The last similar recovery occurred at the end of the 2022 bear market. Data from Glassnode shows it took until December 2023 for the drawdown to reach 35%, and a new record high arrived in March 2024.
Separately, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, offered a bullish perspective based on a comparison with gold and equities. Sigel reported that Bitcoin “looks cheap” relative to the so-called Buffett indicator.
“If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we’re looking at $160,000, and that’s just catching up to where equities already are,” Sigel told his followers. His analysis implies Bitcoin could see a significant comeback move based on this market valuation ratio.
