Ripple’s XRP has declined roughly 61% from its July 2025 all-time high near $3.66, trading near $1.44. On-chain metrics are signaling sustained capital outflows and distribution pressure, raising the risk of a deeper correction if key support levels fail to hold.
Ripple’s XRP experienced one of the most aggressive expansions among large-cap cryptocurrencies, surging from about $0.40 in November 2024 to an all-time high near $3.66 by July 2025. The gains have since sharply retraced, with the token trading near $1.44 as market structure indicates ongoing downside risks.
The Realized Cap Impulse, tracking net capital flows, has turned decisively lower toward negative territory. This signals dominant capital outflows as market participants focus on profit realization and capital preservation, reflecting a weakening trend confidence.
Conversely, spot exchange data shows a different trend, with XRP logging consistent weekly exchange outflows since early September 2025. During the latest week, approximately $89 million worth of XRP exited exchanges, suggesting some retail holders are maintaining exposure in anticipation of a recovery.
On-chain valuation metrics add further caution, with the MVRV Z-Score hovering near the zero line, a level described as defining either a bear market continuation or the last on-chain support. “MVRV Z-Score is sitting right on the key level that defines either a bear market continuation or the last on-chain support,” according to Alphractal.
From a technical perspective, XRP remains vulnerable unless it firmly defends its current demand zone. Failure to hold support could open a move toward the $1 region, which would represent roughly a 72% retracement from its all-time high.
