Bitcoin (BTC) may face a sharp sell-off after renewed talk of a Japanese yen intervention over the weekend, because such action can unwind carry trades and pressure risk assets. According to reports, the New York Fed ran “rate checks” in USD/JPY, a move traders often view as a prelude to coordinated intervention.
Past intervention windows saw Bitcoin fall roughly 30% from local highs before later rebounding more than 100%. An analyst on X, Mikybull Crypto, said the same scenario is about to occur now and that BTC “will first dump and rally afterward.”
If the yen fractal repeats, BTC risks sliding toward about $65,000–$70,000. Markets were already cautious as officials stressed close U.S.–Japan currency coordination.
Onchain measures show a bottom is not yet confirmed, according to Alphractal and its data. Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) remains above zero, so the market is still “in profit,” and 62% of supply sits in profit. (Ed. note: 62% is the lowest such reading since September 2024.)
Bitcoin’s delta growth rate has turned negative, a sign price may be moving toward the network’s aggregate cost basis. Alphractal said the process can be painful but often creates long-term buying opportunities.
