The crypto market has entered a “Greed” phase, with the Fear & Greed Index crossing the 70 threshold, and the weekly RSI is signaling extremely overbought conditions. This mirrors the setup preceding a significant Bitcoin price correction in October 2025. However, a key divergence exists: while the total market cap rose over 22% last week, institutional demand, measured by Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, reached only $1 billion—far below the $3 billion weekly inflows seen during the prior cycle’s rally. Furthermore, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has not peaked at the 0.18 level seen previously, indicating that U.S. investor demand has yet to fully participate. This leaves room for further buying and a potential move into “extreme” greed territory, suggesting the current bearish sentiment may be premature.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the 70 threshold, placing the market in the “Greed” category. This signals a rising risk of a pullback, as a similarly high level of greed preceded a Bitcoin price correction of over 30% in October 2025.
The overall crypto market cap has increased by over 22% from the previous week, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows an extremely overbought condition. Notably, the RSI did not reach such a high level during the October 2025 cycle.
This setup has historically provided conditions conducive to profit-taking, and several large-cap cryptocurrencies are already trading in negative territory. A significant difference, however, lies in institutional demand.
According to SoSoValue, weekly inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled over $1 billion last week, alongside Bitcoin’s 21% rally. During the October cycle, weekly ETF inflows topped $3 billion, meaning current demand is far from those peak levels.
This leaves room for further growth. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index peaked at 0.18 during the previous cycle, indicating rapid buying by U.S. investors before sentiment turned to greed.
That factor is absent this time around. U.S. investor demand did not participate at the level of previous buying waves, which makes way for higher spot buying to the next level. Therefore, the crypto market sentiment at 75 is not fully accurate, as there is still potential for demand to increase to the level of “extreme” greed.
